Historical lessons reveal technology’s impact on employment differs from common belief
We must address the speed and nature of economic transformation. Commonly, technology is seen as a catalyst for accelerated change, potentially displacing older workers as robots become prevalent.
Such transformations can occur, particularly when influenced by factors beyond technology. The rapid decline of coal mining, marked by job losses and challenges in securing new employment, serves as an example. However, assuming that all change resembles this scenario may not accurately reflect today’s reality. If anything, the pace of economic change is diminishing rather than accelerating. The rate of growth in some sectors and the contraction of others have actually reached a nine-decade low, with the turbulent 1980s a distant memory.
The character of economic transformation contradicts our narratives. Recent studies investigate the destiny of “teamsters,” who guided animal-drawn wagons in 19th-century America, after the introduction of motorized trucks, drawing parallels for today’s drivers confronting automated trucks.
Certainly, the teamster count decreased, but notably, the average age increased. Why? Primarily due to a lack of younger workers joining the field. In the UK, this explains why the number of workers in their 60s employed in manufacturing was higher in 2018-19 than in 1994-95, despite a 38% decline in manufacturing jobs. Older workers persist in shrinking sectors, while younger ones seek alternatives.
Economic shifts can pose significant hurdles, particularly when they occur rapidly, but it’s crucial to modernize our perspective on these changes. In fact, there’s a shortage of substantial economic change in 21st-century Britain, and when it does occur, younger workers tend to anticipate and adapt to it.
