IPPR think tank warns that women, younger workers, and lower-paid individuals are most vulnerable to the impacts of artificial intelligence
A report suggests that nearly 8 million jobs in the UK could be lost to artificial intelligence, leading to a potential “jobs apocalypse.” The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warns that women, younger workers, and lower-paid individuals are most at risk from automation. According to the IPPR, entry-level, part-time, and administrative positions are particularly vulnerable to being replaced by AI in a “worst-case scenario” for the adoption of new technologies over the next three to five years.
The think tank cautioned that the UK stands at a crucial juncture, akin to the concept of a “sliding doors” moment, as an increasing number of companies embrace generative AI technologies. These technologies, capable of both reading and creating text, data, and software code, are being used to automate routine tasks in the workplace.
The report highlighted that this initial phase of AI adoption is already endangering jobs, with more companies integrating the technology. Yet, a subsequent phase could result in the automation of additional jobs due to swift advancements in AI.
The IPPR analyzed 22,000 tasks across the economy, encompassing various job types, and found that currently, 11% of tasks performed by workers are at risk of being automated. This percentage could rise to 59% in the next wave of automation as technologies become capable of handling more complex processes.
The report noted that routine cognitive tasks, such as database management, scheduling, and stocktaking, are already under threat. These tasks could lead to the displacement of entry-level and part-time positions in secretarial work, administration, and customer services.
Furthermore, the second wave of AI adoption could impact non-routine tasks, such as database creation, copywriting, and graphic design, which could affect higher-earning jobs.
According to the IPPR, women would be disproportionately affected by automation, as they are more likely to work in occupations that are highly susceptible to automation, such as secretarial and administrative roles.
The report highlights that in the most pessimistic scenario for the second wave of AI adoption, as many as 7.9 million jobs could be displaced. This would result in any potential economic gains from increased productivity being offset by stagnant GDP growth within three to five years.
Conversely, in the most optimistic scenario, where the workforce is fully augmented with generative AI, no jobs would be lost. This could potentially lead to a 4% increase in the size of the economy, equivalent to around £92 billion per year.
The left-of-center think tank raised concerns about the impact on workers, emphasizing that government action could prevent a “jobs apocalypse” and help leverage AI to enhance economic growth and improve living standards.
Carsten Jung, a senior economist at IPPR, stated, “Existing generative AI has the potential to either significantly disrupt the labor market or greatly enhance economic growth. In either scenario, it will profoundly affect millions of people. However, the trajectory of technology is not predetermined, and a catastrophic loss of jobs is not unavoidable. Government, employers, and unions have a critical opportunity to make key decisions now that will ensure we effectively manage this new technology. If they fail to act promptly, it may be too late.”
